"But If You Put Guidry In The Hall...

...then don't you have to also induct [fill in the blank]?" I believe the name cited most frequently to fill in that blank is Dwight Gooden. It's true that the similarities between Gator and Doc are striking, so let's compare and contrast.

Any discussion of Dwight Gooden has to begin with the acknowledgment that he was the greatest pitching phenom in major league history. Only Feller comes close to Gooden's achievements before reaching the age of 21. He finished 2nd in Cy Young voting in his rookie year, shattering the record for most strikeouts per nine innings by more than two-thirds of a strikeout. He then had one of the greatest seasons ever in his sophomore year. He was Dr. K, and he was the biggest star in the game at the age of 20. There was talk that we might be witnessing the greatest pitcher in the history of the game. It didn't turn out that way.

The parallels between Guidry and Gooden are many. Both were absolute sensations in their first two full years; no pitcher has ever had a better two-year start than Guidry and Gooden. Each produced one of the greatest pitching seasons in history in his second year, winning the Cy Young Award unanimously. Neither again achieved the dominance he displayed in his second season, but each nonetheless proceeded to compile by far the highest winning percentage of any starting pitcher in his league over the next seven seasons. Each was a figurative runaway freight train down the stretch in pennant races in their first two full seasons. Each maintained a winning percentage over the first 200 decisions of his career approaching .700.

The similarities don't stop there.

Pick Five

Here are the averages of the best five seasons of various great pitchers. Each of the anonymous pitchers are already in the Hall or, if I don't miss my guess, will be. See if you can determine who they are based on their wins, losses, winning percentage and ERAs. The ERA figures in the following table are the product of their ERA+ and an assumed league average ERA of 4.00.

The identities of our hurlers are on the next page. Here are some hints: all had fewer wins than Blyleven, Kaat and John, and all were most certainly inducted (or, if not yet inducted, will be) on the strength of their amazing peak seasons rather than their accumulation of gaudy career totals. Here's one more hint: I'm not comparing Guidry to Blyleven, Morris or Sutton this time; the comparison is to many of the greatest pitchers of all time. All but one are Hall of Famers. The one non-HOFer is not yet eligible for the HOF ballot but is generally considered a very good bet to make the Hall.

The Greatest Southpaws In American League History

I suggested in this post that Ron Guidry may be the fourth greatest lefthander in the modern (i.e., post-1920) history of the American League, behind only Grove, Ford and Gomez. The more I look at it, the clearer the case becomes. The only other lefthander who might conceivably crack the top four is Randy Johnson, whose AL statistics are remarkably close to Guidry's. Let's look at the Guidry/Johnson comparison, and rank the top 10 southpaws in modern AL history.

Did You Know That Ron Guidry...

...is the only pitcher to have won a Cy Young and received CY votes in five other seasons and be rejected by the Hall?

There have been twelve pitchers to do this and other than Ron Guidry each is already in the Hall or, barring unforeseen circumstances, will be a first ballot HOFer. The twelve are Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Ferguson Jenkins, Steve Carlton, Ron Guidry, Dennis Eckersley, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine and Johan Santana.

There are three more pitchers who have received CY votes in six or more years but never won a Cy Young Award: Mike Mussina (nine years), Nolan Ryan (eight) and Jack Morris (seven). Nolan's already in, Jack's knockin' on the door, and Mussina's candidacy is certain to be stronger than Morris'.

That makes fifteen pitchers who have received Cy Young support in six different seasons, and every single one received or will receive more than 40% support for the Hall of Fame, except one. You know the name of this lonely exception. I'll remind you that he never even received 9% of the vote.

Incomprehensible. Really, just inexplicable.

P.S. Another interesting Cy Young fact: Guidry's six seasons in which he received CY votes happened within a nine year span. Randy Johnson took only eight years to accumulate six such seasons. Carlton, Glavine, Jenkins, Eckersley, Ryan and Morris each took more than nine years to accomplish the feat.

How Long Does a Hall of Fame Career Have To Be?

How many wins must a Hall of Fame pitcher have? How many innings are enough, and how many not enough?

The most frequently cited criticisms of Guidry's HOF qualifications are "not enough wins" and "he didn't do it long enough." Most agree that in Guidry's case the quality was there, it's just a matter of quantity. It's certainly true that the duration of Guidry's career, and his number of wins and innings, would place him on the low end of the HOF pitching roster, but does he really fail to meet some informal minimum for the Hall?

It seems this debate always veers to a discussion of Koufax and Dean (who had 165 and 150 wins, respectively) and a discussion of an apparent exception for great pitchers who careers were prematurely ended by injury. But there are also six 20th century starting pitchers in the Hall with fewer than 200 wins who are not named Koufax or Dean and don't qualify for the prematurely-ended-career exception, and thirteen who won fewer than 220 games. Each of these pitchers pitched in times when 4-man rotations were the rule, complete games the expectation, and 20 wins and 280 to 300 innings common for elite pitchers.

Here's the question for the BBWAA and the Veterans Committee: if the five Hall of Famers pictured above (left to right, Lefty Gomez, Hal Newhouser, Bob Lemon, Don Drysdale and Happy Jack Chesbro) are Hall worthy despite win totals ranging from 184 to 209, are 170 wins too few for the Hall if attained in the age of five-man rotations and seven-inning starts?

Guidry v. Schilling

I'm ambivalent about Schilling's qualifications for the Hall, but let's face it - he's going in. His big game reputation and outstanding post-season record will put him over the top.

Schilling Shills generally acknowledge that his record is very erratic, his inconsistency and periodic arm issues resulting in numerous single-digit win totals and poor winning percentages throughout his career. The Shills fairly argue, however, that Schilling's peak years were excellent and deserving of HOF induction. Let's compare Schilling's peak years to Guidry's, doing a year-by-year comparison.

The following table lists Schilling's and Guidry's peak years in descending order of wins.

I've inserted a "G" or "S" in the middle column to indicate which pitcher, in my opinion, had the superior year. Here's my reasoning for each year.

A Note About Catfish Hunter

Online commenters and kibbitzers tend to disparage Catfish Hunter's HOF qualifications - only 224 wins, an elite pitcher for only a six or seven year span, rather pedestrian ERAs, and, they argue, a big winner only because he played for great teams that gave him excellent run support.

These observations from Catfish's critics may have some merit, but they don't detract from the following consideration. Catfish Hunter made 34 starts for the A's in Sept/Oct of '72, '73 and '74. Almost all of them were big starts because the A's won the AL West by narrow margins each year, clinching only in the last week of each season. His record in these 34 starts was 20-5 with a 2.38 ERA in 246 innings pitched. He was the unquestioned ace of the only non-Yankee team to win three consecutive World Series, and he went 7-1 in the six post-season series the A's played on their way to those three world championships.

The BBWAA obviously thinks that carries a lot of weight. I do, too. I should point out that the same community of online commenters who question Hunter's HOF bona fides generally seems to attach great weight to Curt Schilling's post-season record and reputation as a big game pitcher.

20-5, 2.38 ERA in 246 of the biggest innings in his career and in the history of the Oakland A's franchise. That positively shouts "Hall of Fame" to me. It's enough to put a five time 20-game winner with a Cy Young award and five world championship rings over the top and into the Hall.

More September Big Game Records

It occurred to me that I've somehow omitted any discussion of Blyleven's pennant race performances.

Bert participated in seven tight division races - '70, '77-80, '87 and '89 (again, I've defined a tight division race as one in which the race was within five games at some point in September prior to elimination or clinching, and the pitcher made at least one September start when the race was within five games). Bert's teams won two world championships, three division titles and had an average winning percentage of .562 (equivalent to 91 wins in a 162 game season). In other words, these were good teams, and yet Bert's September records in these races were as strikingly mediocre as the rest of his regular season performances for these teams. Bert made 40 starts in these seven races and had a 13-14 record and 3.04 ERA in 278 innings pitched.

The Thin Man

The following is the opening paragraph from an article on Guidry in Sports Illustrated's September 19, 1977 edition entitled "Getting Fat With The Thin Man," a reference to the slender Louisianan's emergence as the Yankee ace as the team surged past the Red Sox and Orioles to win the AL East title.

"From Aug. 7 through the end of last week, the Yankees won 28 of 34 games and moved from third place, five games out, to two ahead in the American League East...And when a team goes on a tear, there invariably is a starting pitcher high on the list of streakers. Because the Yanks' staff is loaded with the likes of World Series heroes Catfish Hunter, Don Gullett and Ken Holtzman, it is hardly surprising that New York found a hot arm. The astounding thing is that the limb is attached to the left shoulder of Ron Guidry, a pitcher whose reputation had been as puny as his 5'11", 158-pound body."

Guidry's epic performance during the '78 pennant - the win in the one-game playoff at Fenway, the back-to-back two-hit shutouts of the Sox in September - didn't come as a surprise in Yankee fans. In fact, it seemed very familiar, because Guidry had been almost as dominant during the Yanks' 41-13 charge down the stretch in '77. It's likely Guidry's '77 performance would occupy a more significant place in baseball lore but for the shadow cast by the legendary '78 season.

El Tiante v. Louisiana Lightning

Baseball Crank has an excellent evaluation of Blyleven, Morris, Kaat, John, Tiant, Guidry and others in a January 2001 post. It's a very detailed, incisive and fair assessment of the HOF qualifications of various pitchers, and I agree with his conclusions that Morris, John and Kaat fall short, if just barely. And I really applaud his support of Luis Tiant's induction, particularly his citation of Tiant's outstanding September records for the Red Sox in '70s pennant races. We differ on Blyleven, but Baseball Crank's evaluation of Blyleven is one of the few I've seen that candidly acknowledges the faults in Blyleven's HOF resume: the generally mediocre win totals and winning percentages even when pitching for solid teams.

I'll discuss on the next page Baseball Crank's discussions of Luis Tiant and Ron Guidry. I think Baseball Crank would agree that upon closer examination Guidry has many of the same qualifications as Tiant. I also think that Baseball Crank would agree (fair-minded fellow that he is) that in one instance he grossly mischaracterized Guidry's record.

Pedro in '99, Grove in '31, Gibson in '68, Guidry in '78...

...McLain in '68, Koufax in '65 (or '66, or '63), Gooden in '84. These are some of the greatest seasons pitchers have ever had. Let's examine various measures of pitching dominance and compare Guidry's '78 season to many of the other greatest seasons in baseball history. A statistical analysis confirms that Guidry's '78 season is among the greatest ever. When one considers that this performance occurred during one of the most legendary pennant races in baseball history and fueled the greatest comeback in American League history, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Guidry's magnificent season is the greatest ever.

Jim Kaplan Nailed It 23 Years Ago

"Three kinds of players dominate the Baseball Hall of Fame: batters who hit a lot, sluggers who homer a lot, pitchers who win a lot. Their glitzy stats jump out of the bios sent to electors. But there are equally deserving players who don't make the Hall: men whose numbers aren't catchy enough and whose contributions are often too subtle to be summarized. Some of them are subsequently elected by the Veterans' Committee, but that group's deliberations don't begin until 23 years after a player has retired.

"One way to try to right these wrongs is to build up support for worthy but underrated players before they get lost in the shuffle. I have in mind three current players who merit election to the Hall but possibly will not make it based on past voting patterns: Tony Perez, Ron Guidry and Ozzie Smith."

Jim Kaplan, in the June 2, 1986 edition of Sports Illustrated

SI's Jim Kaplan was prophetic - or at least 67% prophetic. Tony Perez and Ozzie Smith have indeed been inducted into the cherished Hall. Ron Guidry, however...

Guidry Gets An Endorsement From Jim Rice

You know my opinion about Ron Guidry's HOF bona fides. How about getting Jim Rice's view?

Rice was asked about Blyleven and Morris on a conference call with the press shortly after his election to the Hall. Here's a link to the transcript of the conference call. The question about Blyleven and Morris comes up towards the end.

Rice made the point that it's about more than numbers. For a player, it was about what great competitors these guys were. Rice plainly thinks Blyleven and Morris are HOF quality candidates. What was really interesting, however, is that he goes out of his way to mention two other pitchers he felt epitomized great competitors:

"So when you look at pitchers like [Blyleven and Morris], like a Ron Guidry, you look at a Goose Gossage, that you go out there and you face everyday, and you knew they were going to be the best."

I think Jim Rice knows a thing or two about Hall of Fame pitchers. Thanks, Jim, from the Gator Guy and all the Ron Guidry fans.

Cooperstown Chronicles

I've posted a link to Cooperstown Chronicles at LestersLegends.com. Ryan Lester is the proprietor of LestersLegends and he offers his views of the HOF qualifications of various Hall of Famers and HOF prospects. While I don't always agree with Ryan, I find his insights interesting and illuminating. Here's his take on Ron Guidry's candidacy for the HOF:

"I would have liked to see Ron Guidry get more than the 170 victories he totaled. If he got 30 more at the same winning percentage (.651), I think he would have been a no-brainer. He had a nine-year stretch when he was one of the very best pitchers in the game. His 25-3, 1.74 ERA in 1978 is legendary. His 3-1, 1.69 ERA in World Series play shows he could elevate his game. I’m a Red Sox fan, but I appreciate how good Ron Guidry was. I think he should be a HOFer. If he’s good enough for to have his number retired by the Yankees and a spot in Monument Park, then he’s good enough for Cooperstown."

I think Ryan touches on the key issues: Guidry's winning percentage, nine-year stretch of excellence and superior post-season record merit induction.

How Dominant Was Guidry At His Peak?

Pretty damn dominant. There are various measures of pitching dominance, but in the final analysis it's about not surrendering runs. Guidry was the best in the business at Job One for pitchers in the years '77, '78 and '79, leading the American League in ERA twice and compiling a major league leading 161 ERA+ over those three years.

It turns out that Guidry's 161 ERA+ over a three year period is a pretty unusual achievement, so unusual that Guidry was only the third American League pitcher in the modern era (i.e., post-1920) to accomplish the feat. If you exclude the War Years (when Hal Newhouser did it) then Guidry was the first American League pitcher to turn the trick since Lefty Grove in the '30s.

We'll look at the select group of pitchers who've managed to maintain this level of dominance over a three-year span and examine the curious concentration of these achievements in two brief and distinct periods in baseball history.

More "Did You Know..."

There have been 19 pitchers who led all starting pitchers in their league in MVP balloting in consecutive seasons. Fourteen have been eligible for the Hall of Fame. Ten have been inducted into the Hall. (Five of those ten are pictured above; from left to right: Dizzy Dean, Hal Newhouser, Red Ruffing, Bob Feller and Dazzy Vance.)

The only pitchers to have been rejected so far are Bucky Walters, Mort Cooper (who did it during the War years), Denny McLain (whose personal life imploded the year after pulling off the feat 1969) and Ron Guidry. Guidry led all AL starting pitchers in MVP balloting in '77 and '78.

Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Chris Carpenter each led all starting pitchers in their league in the MVP balloting but have yet to be eligible for the Hall. All but Carpenter are certain to make it (unless Roger is rail'roided). The ten Hall of Famers who've achieved this are Dazzy Vance, Burleigh Grimes, Carl Hubbell, Dizzy Dean, Red Ruffing, Bob Feller, Hal Newhouser, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax and Jim Palmer.

Did You Know That Ron Guidry...

...is the only American League pitcher to win consecutive ERA titles and be rejected by the Hall of Fame? Did you know that he is the only pitcher since WW II - A.L. or N.L. - to win consecutive ERA titles and be rejected by the Hall?

Walter Johnson, Red Faber, Lefty Grove, Hal Newhouser and Ron Guidry are the only HOF-eligible American League pitchers to have won back-to-back ERA titles. All are in the Hall except Guidry. Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez are the only other A.L. pitchers to win consecutive ERA titles, and they'll enter the Hall in their first year of eligibility (again, assuming Clemens doesn't run aground on the steroids issue).

Christy Mathewson, Pete Alexander, Ray Kremer, Carl Hubbell, Bucky Walters, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Gred Maddux and Randy Johnson are the only N.L. pitchers to win consecutive ERA titles, and all but Kremer and Walters are either in the Hall or are surefire bets to be first-ballot inductees.

This isn't to say that winning consecutive ERA titles should qualify one for automatic induction into the Hall. It's just to point out that it's rarely done, only very good pitchers do it, and those who do it almost invariably go into the Hall of Fame.

Just something for the Veterans Committee to consider.

Guidry's Best Seasons v. The Best of Two All-Time Greats

My last post compared Guidry and Drysdale and argued that they had very similar Hall of Fame qualifications - relatively brief careers but sustained excellence and exceptional records as big game pitchers. As I've noted, however, there are many who consider Drysdale's HOF qualifications marginal, a view apparently shared by many in the BBWAA, who waited ten years and ten ballots before inducting the Dodger great.

I'm very conscious of the fact that comparing HOF candidates to the most marginal inductees can lead to a gradual loosening of HOF standards. If a sufficient argument for induction is that a candidate is 95% as great as the most marginal Hall of Famers, then HOF standards will gradually be eroded. That's not to say that Guidry is any less deserving of the Hall than Drysdale, because in my opinion he is every bit as deserving and his induction would in no way represent a loosening of HOF standards. If there's any doubt about that, just compare Guidry to two Hall of Famers whom no one would suggest were marginal inductees.

Guidry v. Drysdale: A Year-By-Year Comparison

Here's a year-by-year comparison of Guidry and Drysdale. The seasons are listed on the basis of wins, in descending order.

I've inserted a "G" for Guidry or "D" for Drysdale in the middle column to indicate which pitcher had, in my estimation, the superior season (and, in one instance, an "E" for even).

Did the HOF Really Reject the 10th Best Lefty Ever?

Is it really possible that the tenth greatest lefthander in the modern history of the game was rejected by the Hall of Fame? Is it really possible the Hall rejected the fourth greatest leftie in modern American League history? Put together your list of the premier southpaws in baseball history - mine's on the next page. Just click below to see my ranking of the 15 greatest lefthanders of all time. I'll tell you right now that the five guys pictured above - Hubbell, Spahn, Grove, Johnson and Carlton - all rank near the top.

Here's my list.

I found it difficult to rank pitchers from the pre-1920, "dead ball" era - it was just such a different game before Ruth revolutionized it. But Eddie Plank and Rube Waddell are definitely my top two from the pre-1920 era.

I rate Guidry ahead of three Hall of Fame lefties: Hal Newhouser, Herb Pennock and Eppa Rixey (who is not on my list at all). Had two of Newhouser's great years not occurred during the war years I probably would have rated him ahead of Guidry. Pennock's claim to Fame rests on his great six-year stretch with the Yankees in the 1920's ('23 to '28), which I judged comparable to, but exceeded by, Guidry's nine-year stretch from '77 to '85. As for Rixey, I'm not really sure why he is in the Hall of Fame.

Where the Veterans Committee Gets It Right and the BBWAA Gets It Wrong

Joe Gordon, Ted Williams, Bobby Doerr and Bill Dickey

The Veterans Committee's selections over the last 30 years fall into two main groups: middle infielders (i.e., catchers, 2nd basemen and shortstops) and players with relatively brief careers or brief primes.

Joe Gordon, the pre-1943 Veterans Committee selection from last year, clearly fits in the "brief career" category. Ron Santo and Tony Oliva, two of the top three votegetters in last year's post-1943 Veterans Committee election, fit squarely into the latter category. Neither had huge career totals but each was considered one of the premier hitters in his league for a period of seven or eight years. Neither had a very long or distinguished career following his prime (in each case about five years).

The following are Hall Famers selected by the Veterans Committee since 1979, in reverse order of induction: Joe Gordon, Bill Mazeroski, Orlando Cepeda, George Davis, Lary Doby, Nellie Fox, Jim Bunning, Richie Ashburn, Vic Willis, Phil Rizzuto, Hal Newhouser, Tony Lazzeri, Red Schoendienst, Bobby Doerr, Ernie Lombardi, Enos Slaughter, Arky Vaughan, Rick Ferrell, Pee Wee Reese, George Kell, Travis Jackson, Johnny Mize, Chuck Klein, Hack Wilson, Addie Joss.

I've italicized the middle-infielders and bolded those who had relatively brief careers or brief primes. A reasonable inference from the foregoing roster of inductees is that the Veterans Committee apparently believes the BBWAA gives short shrift to (i) players who played positions generally considered more defensive in nature and (ii) players who were great for a relatively brief period and consequently did not compile particularly impressive career statistical totals. Of the remaining VC inductees - Bunning, Ashburn and Cepeda - it's pretty clear that the VC felt Ashburn's reputation as a great defensive centerfielder didn't receive sufficient consideration from the BBWAA (making Ashburn an outfield variant of the "middle infielder" phenomenon in VC voting).

Happy 84th, Yogi

Happy birthday to the greatest living Yankee.

That's Yogi, Ron and Derek at the original Yankee Stadium in 2008. Yogi's already in the Hall, of course, and Derek is certain to join him. I think Ron belongs there, too.

It's Up To The Veterans Committee

Phil Rizzuto, Nellie Fox, Bill Mazeroski, Tony Lazzeri and Red Schoendienst

Guidry is eligible for inclusion on the 2010 Veterans Committee ballot (the VC votes only every other year and won't vote in 2009). There's no assurance he'll be on it, but he'll be eligible. There is a winnowing process that reduces the number of candidates to ten.

The Veterans Committee consists of 65 Hall of Famers appointed by the Hall's Board of Directors. A list of the Veterans Committee members can be found at the bottom of this page at the HOF website.

As we all know, baseball Hall of Fame elections are controversial and hotly debated among fans. The Veterans Committee has come in for some heavy fan criticism for selecting players like Phil Rizzuto and Bill Mazeroski. Middle infielders in particular attract controversy, probably because they tend to have weaker offensive statistics. Joe Gordon, the great Yankees 2nd baseman from the '30's and '40's, is the most recent VC inductee. Other notable middle infielders who've been inducted by the VC over the last 30 years are Red Schoendienst, Nellie Fox, Tony Lazzeri and Bobby Doerr.

How Could HOF Voters Have Been So Misguided?

The apparent disregard for Guidry by the sportswriters who cast the ballots for the Hall of Fame is not wholly inexplicable. There are reasons why HOF voters may have missed what seems so obvious. Some of the reasons are specific to Guidry and some are not. Let's take a look at them.

Sutton, Niekro and Blyleven

My purpose here is to promote Ron Guidry's candidacy for the Hall of Fame, not deride Bert Blyleven's candidacy or anyone else's. I've raised the subject of Bert Blyleven in two posts for one very simple reason: Blyleven perfectly illustrates the difference between my conception of the Hall of Fame and the conception of those who focus almost exclusively on the accumulation of gaudy career statistics. In my view, the other camp is missing the forest for the trees. The best way to demonstrate the basic differences between the pro-Bert and anti-Bert camps (and, by so doing, describe how the two camps view the Hall of Fame differently) is to compare Bert once again to two pitchers whom Bert-Backers love to cite: Don Sutton and Phil Neikro.

The Bert Backers argue that Bert is essentially the same as Sutton and Neikro but with two important qualifications: Bert fell just short of the essentially arbitrary 300 win threshold, and Bert had materially better ERAs (in fact, Bert's advantage over Neikro in ERA+ is really not very significant - 118 to 115). These are fair and compelling arguments. Blyleven's statistics generally compare quite favorably to Sutton's and Niekro's.

But there's one area where the difference between Blyleven, on the one hand, and Sutton and Niekro, on the other, is quite striking. This difference virtually leaps from the pages of the baseball encyclopedias. Both Sutton and Niekro consistently and significantly outperformed their teams over an extended period while receiving run support comparable to that afforded the other pitchers on the staff. Bert Blyleven did not.

The Crux of the Matter

There is an army of Blyleven Backers deployed across the internet armed with three and four letter statistical acronyms - RSAA, WARP, RCAP - designed to demonstrate that Blyleven would have been a consistent big winner if only he'd played for better teams and received better run support. They purport to prove that Bert would have won 313 games with better run support, or that his mediocre .537 career win percentage would have been .570, or that he'd have won 20 games in a season more than once if only he had been backed by elite teams rather than also-rans. They have an explanation for everything, a rationalization for every glaring deficiency in Bert's Hall of Fame qualifications.

But there's one thing - one really big thing - that they just can't seem to explain: why wasn't Bert a consistent big winner when he actually played for good teams that gave him solid offensive support? Because it is a fact that Blyleven pitched for some very good teams that gave him very good support, and Bert still couldn't put up Hall of Fame numbers.

By my count Bert pitched eight seasons for teams that either won 90 or more games, were serious contenders for division titles, or both. These teams won two World Series, three division titles and finished 2nd three other times. They had a cumulative .562 winning percentage. Bert made 261 starts over these eight seasons and pitched more than 1800 innings. Here's his record for these eight seasons:

100-83, .546 win percentage, 3.55 ERA.

The simple fact is that Bert averaged 12.5 wins per season for these eight years and had a lower winning percentage - .546 - than the .562 winning percentage posted by his teams. But Bert's battalions tell us we should ignore what actually happened when Bert pitched for good teams and instead believe what they tell us Bert would have done if those mediocre Twins and Indians teams had been powerhouses.

The Biggest Games Of Their Lives

That's Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling after winning the 2001 World Series and being selected as co-MVPs. Here's what you get if you aggregate the September pennant race numbers and the post-seasons numbers for each pitcher, subtracting any games pitched after clinching or elimination.*

These were undoubtedly the biggest games in the careers of these pitchers. Again, it is notable that Guidry won more games in significantly fewer starts than Schilling or Johnson.

_______________________

* Schilling won games after his team clinched playoff spots in '93 and '05 and won a game after the D'backs were eliminated in 2000. Guidry won a game after elimination in '83. Johnson was blown out in a game after the D'backs had been eliminated in 2000.

Guidry in Sept/Oct = McLain '68

When Guidry's post-season statistics are added to his '77 to '85 September pennant race statistics they bear a striking resemblance to the historic season of another pitcher. It gives you some idea of exactly how dominating Guidry was in the biggest games in September and October.

The nominal ERAs aren't that similar, but the ERA+ is much closer (McLain's nominal ERA came in the Year of the Pitcher, after all).

Big Games, Big Pitchers

Here are the September pennant race records of many of the biggest "big game" pitchers of the last half century.

There is much that is confirmed and much revealed in the table above. As many would expect, pitchers like Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver elevated their game when the race was hot and time was short. Koufax and Drysdale also pitched marvelously during pennant races (in Koufax's case, more than the numbers above indicate), which is why the Dodgers won those mad N.L. scrambles in '63, '65 and '66.

I imagine many would be surprised at the disparity between Schilling's October numbers and his September numbers. Jack Morris and John Smoltz are two others whose September records don't quite match their October achievements and reputations.

What follows is a brief examination of the Septembers, good and bad, of these pitchers. Click on the pitcher's name to go to a season-by-season breakdown of their performances in pennant races.

Did You Know That Ron Guidry...

...is the only pitcher with four selections to The Sporting New All-Star Team who has been rejected by the Hall of Fame? It's true. Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Bob Feller, Steve Carlton, Warren Spahn, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Juan Marichal, Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Robin Roberts are all in the Hall of Fame. Roger Clemens, Gred Maddux, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez are sure to follow.

Bunning was a two-time Sporting News selection. Drysdale, Morris and Sutton were each selected once. Blyleven was never a Sporting News All-Star. Guidry's four selections - in '78, '81, '83 and '85 - were as many as Koufax, Marichal and Seaver.

Ten Innings To Cooperstown: The Jack Morris Story

Jack Morris sealed his reputation as big game pitcher on October 19, 1991. He pitched a 10 inning shutout that day, winning game 7 of the World Series by a score of 1-0 to make the Minnesota Twins the champions of baseball. It is without question one of the great pitching performances in World Series history. Jack Morris was a gamer, there's no doubt about it.

Jack's Game 7 classic wasn't his only shining moment in October either. He had a 7-4 post-season record in 13 starts, with a 3.80 ERA (even more impressive, he won 7 of his first 8 decisions before a rocky post-season in '92) . As is the case with many great post-season pitchers, he was even better in the World Series, going 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in seven starts for Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto. He was 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his first two World Series (in '84 and '91), before going 0-2 for the Blue Jays in the '92 WS. Guidry was better in October, but Morris was close, particularly if you give him extra-credit for his 10-inning Game 7 shutout (and I think we should).

Morris went 13-13 in 30 September starts in those four races with a 3.34 ERA. He had a particulary difficult time in games against the other contenders in those races, losing twice in the last nine games to eventual division winner Milwaukee in 1981 and losing critical September starts to Baltimore in '83 and Toronto in '87. He was stellar in '92 with Toronto, going 4-1 in 7 September starts with a 3.40 ERA. Morris made two September starts for Toronto in 1993, losing his only decision.

In Some Septembers, He Wasn't Worth A Schilling

Curt Schilling's announcement of his retirement last month triggered the usual speculation about his qualifications for the Hall of Fame. The overwhelming consensus among both sportswriter and fans was that Curt was the best big game pitcher of his time, which compensated for his spotty regular season career record, and that he should be inducted into the Hall. I'll go on record and predict that Schilling will indeed cruise into the Hall, almost certainly in his first year of eligibility.

Let me get a few things out of the way first. Schilling's post-season record is great, without question. The line says it all: 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 133.1 innings across 19 starts. He was great in the 2001 World Series (although he was outdueled in his epic confrontation with Clemens in game 7), and was excellent in his two starts for Boston in the 2004 and 2007 World Series. I'm obviously a big advocate of giving significant weight to the "big game" records of Hall of Fame candidates, and Schilling's post-season record is a major plus for his candidacy. And he might have had even more post-season success had he not almost single-handedly ruined Arizona's pennant hopes in 2000.

What Have HOF Voters Been Smoking?

To the right is Ron Guidry's record of vote support in the Hall of Fame balloting, straight from the official website of the HOF. He was dropped from the ballot in 2002 after dipping below 5% support. Take a good look, and then consider the following:

Lew Burdette received 24.1 of the vote in 1984 and topped 20% in five other years. He became a starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Braves in 1954 and over the next 8 years went 142-90 (.612 win%) with a 104 ERA+. After that he bounced around for six years and was largely a punching bag - an 81 ERA+ (meaning that after adjusting for park factors his ERA was nearly 20% higher than the league average). He had a great Series in 1957, beating the Yankees three times. The Yankees took their revenge the next year, beating Burdette twice, including in game 7. There is no rational explanation for Burdette receiving nearly three times the HOF support Guidry did.

Guidry's Extraordinary "Big Game" Record

At left: Guidry pitching in the one-game playoff at Fenway Park in October 1978

Guidry did a season's worth of pitching in his five September pennant races in his prime - 245.2 innings. He won 26 and lost 4 in 30 starts. He struck out 181 and walked 60. His ERA was 2.67. All but 6 of these 30 starts came with the Yankees leading or trailing by 5.5 games or less. All but one of these 30 starts came before the Yankees had clinched or been eliminated (Guidry's last start of 1983 came after elimination). Every start but one during the '77 and '78 pennant races - when Guidry was as at his most dominant - came when the difference was 3.5 games or less. He pitched five shutouts and had two other 7 inning starts in which he didn't surrender a run.

And as if all that weren't enough, Guidry pitched six September games against the other contenders in these five pennant races and his line reads 6-0, 50.1 innings, 1.97 ERA.

The Best Big Game Pitcher Of His Generation

I know, it's a bold statement. If you're a big-league pitcher, there is not a more coveted title or reputation. It is the central argument for Curt Schilling's case for the Hall of Fame. It is no small part of Jack Morris's case for the Hall. It is a perfectly appropriate factor to consider in measuring the qualifications of a pitcher for the Hall.

I fear however that the sportswriters who vote for the Hall of Fame have overlooked Guidry's record as a big game pitcher, and have forgotten that big games take place not only in October but in September as well, when pennants and division championships are won and lost. And it turns out that success in October is not always joined with success in the heat of pennant races. There are pitchers with great post-season accomplishments who stumbled in the heat of pennant races, and others who consistently elevated their performance in pennant races but stumbled in October. And then there are pitchers like Ron Guidry, who were great in both months and seemed to rise to the occasion whenever the stakes were highest.

Ron Guidry participated in five pennant races with the Yankees between 1977 and 1985 where a spot in the post-season hung in the balance (there was nothing at stake for the Yankees in September in the strike interrupted '81 season because they already had a playoff spot locked up by virtue of leading the division when the strike occurred in mid-June)*. I've defined a "pennant race" as any season in which (i) a team was within five games of first place (or a wild-card spot) at some point in September prior to mathematical elimination, and/or (ii) were leading the division (or wild card race) at some point in September but with a lead of five games or less, and (iii) the pitcher at issue made at least one start when the race was within 5 games.

As any baseball fan can tell you, these September games are big when your team is in the race and time is running short. Sometimes they can even feel as big or bigger than post-season games. Guidry's record during these five pennant races was quite simply astounding. Only one other pitcher during the post-WW II era can arguably claim equivalence. This consistent and amazing success in tight pennant races is perhaps the most compelling argument for Guidry's inclusion in the Hall, relatively brief career notwithstanding. Let's look at the record.

Ron Guidry made 30 starts in September during these pennant races. He won 26 of them.

Compare Gator to Drysdale and Bunning

Don Drysdale and Jim Bunning each had a significantly shorter career than Don Sutton and therefore offer a better basis for comparison to Guidry. Neither ranks particularly high in terms of career numbers by Hall of Fame standards: Bunning won 224 games, Drysdale 209. Each led the league in victories once, strikeouts three times and innings pitched twice. Neither ever led their league in ERA, winning percentage or complete games. Drysdale won 20 games twice, Bunning once - neither total particularly impressive in an era in which Spahn, Marichal, Jenkins, Koufax and others routinely posted 20-win seasons.

Although neither pitcher was considered the equal of Ford or Koufax, each was durable, reliable and sometimes spectacular. Bunning pitched the first perfect game in the National League in the 20th century (Koufax would pitch the 2nd the following year). Drysdale tossed a record six consecutive shutouts in 1968, breaking Walter Johnson's record for consecutive scoreless innings in the process. Drysdale and Bunning didn't flaunt the annual win totals or sub-2.00 ERA's of some of their contemporaries, but while Spahn was finally stepping aside and Gibson, Marichal, and Seaver just beginning to hit their stride, Drysdale and Bunning finished 1-2 in wins in the major leagues from 1957 to 1966 by averaging approximately 17 wins a season.

The Sportswriters Loved Him At The Time

As much as the sportswriters have forgotten Ron Guidry when it comes to their Hall of Fame ballots, they seemed to love him when he was active. They couldn't stop lavishing awards and praise on Ron, to an extent reserved almost exclusively for Hall of Famers.

The following is a table of career Cy Young vote shares, which are simply the sum of the percentages of the Cy Young votes received by a player each year. For instance, if a pitcher receives 20% of the Cy Young votes one year and 12% the next, his Cy Young vote share for the two years is 0.32. If he wins the Cy Young Award unanimously the third year, his career Cy Young vote shares jumps to 1.32.

Cy Young Award Voting

Selections to The Sporting News All-Star Team

Seven: Steve Carlton

Five: Roger Clemens, Warren Spahn, Greg Maddux and Jim Palmer

Four: Tom Seaver, Juan Marichal, Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Robin Roberts, Ron Guidry

Three: Ferguson Jenkins, Jimmy Key, Bob Lemon

Bob Gibson had two TSN selections, as did Gaylord Perry, Jim Kaat, Curt Schilling and Jim Bunning. Drysdale, Sutton, John and Morris each had one. Blyleven, Lolich and Niekro had none.

And yet, when Guidry received 8.8% of the HOF vote in 2000 - his highest vote total - there were five starting pitchers who received more votes: John, Kaat, Morris, Blyleven and Tiant. Their aggregate haul of TSN All-Star selections was four - the same number as Guidry racked up on his own.

The Best Win% for a 150 Win Stretch

Lefty Grove .788 152 wins 1928-33

Randy Johnson .757 156 wins 1994-02

Pedro Martinez .722 161 wins 1997-07

Whitey Ford .720 216 wins 1950-64

Juan Marichal .703 154 wins 1963-69

Roger Clemens .700 156 wins 1997-06

Greg Maddux .699 165 wins 1992-00

Ron Guidry .697 154 wins 1977-85

Tom Glavine .681 171 wins 1992-01

Red Ruffing .673 173 wins 1934-46

Sandy Koufax .670 156 wins 1958-66

Lefty Gomez .665 151 wins 1931-38

Carl Hubbell .662 157 wins 1932-39

Andy Pettitte .661 160 wins 1996-05

Jim Palmer .661 154 wins 1967-76

Tom Seaver .660 171 wins 1969-77

Bob Gibson .658 156 wins 1963-70

Dwight Gooden .655 154 wins 1984-93

Hal Newhouser .654 151 wins 1944-50

Steve Carlton .652 165 wins 1976-84

Mike Mussina .650 195 wins 1992-03

I chose a period covering 150 wins for a few reasons. First, it's the unofficial minimum number of wins for a starting pitcher who hopes to make the Hall (Dizzy Dean has the fewest wins of any Hall of Famer starter with precisely 150). Secondly, it's a number of wins that generally represents a period of seven to nine seasons for most elite pitchers, a duration the Hall of Fame has generally deemed sufficient if excellence can be maintained for that period.

As one can see, this list is chock full of Hall of Famers and sure-to-be Hall of Famers like Maddux, Clemens and Martinez. The only pitchers on this list who have been rejected by the Hall are Guidry and Gooden.

The Curious Case of Bert Blyleven

Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven are both making serious bids for the Hall of Fame. Blyleven polled 63% of the vote last year and has the kind of momentum that should take him across the 75% goal line in the next few years. Morris got 44% last year in his tenth year of eligibility, which is about where Blyleven was two years ago in his tenth year of eligibility. Morris appears to have established a clear foothold in the 40s, a position of strength in Hall of Fame voting that almost always leads to induction (by the veterans committee if not the baseball writers).

Ron Guidry, by contrast, received less than 5% vote support in 2002 (his ninth year of eligibility) and was dropped from the ballot in accordance with HOF rules. It's now up to the veterans committee now, and I believe Guidry becomes eligible for consideration by the committee next year.

To be blunt, it is positively absurd that Blyleven and Morris are on the fasttrack to Cooperstown while Guidry has already washed out. Let me explain why.

Compare Gator to Don Sutton

Don Sutton won 324 games in his career for the Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, Athletics and Angels. He was somewhat overshadowed during the '70's by other great National League pitchers - Gibson, Seaver, and Jenkins in the early and mid-70's; Carlton and J.R. Richard in the late '70's. He never won a Cy Young Award but received votes each year from 1972 to 1976, finishing as high as 3rd in 1976. His Cy Young career award shares (i.e., the sum of the percentages of the Cy Young vote he received) is 0.43, consisting of voting shares of 21% in 1976, 10% in 1974, 6% in 1973, 5% in 1972 and 1% in 1975.

Sutton's prime was 1971 to 1980. Prior to 1971 Sutton was a promising but very erratic pitcher for the Dodgers, winning 66 and losing 73 over the five year period from 1966 to 1970 with an ERA of 3.45 (approximately 5% worse than the league average during the pitching dominated years of the late '60's). Sutton blossomed in 1971, going 17-12 with a 2.54 ERA, and proceeded to become a consistent winner for the Dodgers during the 1970's. Here are Sutton's statistics for the decade period 1971 to 1980 and Guidry's for the period 1977 to 1985 (including the strike shortened, 108 game 1981 season).

Sutton left the Dodgers after 1980 and began a peripatetic stretch of nine years, moving from Houston to Milwaukee to Oakland and then the Angels, before returning to L.A. for a valedictory season in 1988. Over these nine years Sutton won 94 and lost 81 (a .537 winning percentage) and had a 3.71 ERA (which translates to a 102 ERA+, about two percent better than the league average).