The Curious Case of Bert Blyleven

Jack Morris and Bert Blyleven are both making serious bids for the Hall of Fame. Blyleven polled 63% of the vote last year and has the kind of momentum that should take him across the 75% goal line in the next few years. Morris got 44% last year in his tenth year of eligibility, which is about where Blyleven was two years ago in his tenth year of eligibility. Morris appears to have established a clear foothold in the 40s, a position of strength in Hall of Fame voting that almost always leads to induction (by the veterans committee if not the baseball writers).

Ron Guidry, by contrast, received less than 5% vote support in 2002 (his ninth year of eligibility) and was dropped from the ballot in accordance with HOF rules. It's now up to the veterans committee now, and I believe Guidry becomes eligible for consideration by the committee next year.

To be blunt, it is positively absurd that Blyleven and Morris are on the fasttrack to Cooperstown while Guidry has already washed out. Let me explain why.

Compare Gator to Don Sutton

Don Sutton won 324 games in his career for the Dodgers, Astros, Brewers, Athletics and Angels. He was somewhat overshadowed during the '70's by other great National League pitchers - Gibson, Seaver, and Jenkins in the early and mid-70's; Carlton and J.R. Richard in the late '70's. He never won a Cy Young Award but received votes each year from 1972 to 1976, finishing as high as 3rd in 1976. His Cy Young career award shares (i.e., the sum of the percentages of the Cy Young vote he received) is 0.43, consisting of voting shares of 21% in 1976, 10% in 1974, 6% in 1973, 5% in 1972 and 1% in 1975.

Sutton's prime was 1971 to 1980. Prior to 1971 Sutton was a promising but very erratic pitcher for the Dodgers, winning 66 and losing 73 over the five year period from 1966 to 1970 with an ERA of 3.45 (approximately 5% worse than the league average during the pitching dominated years of the late '60's). Sutton blossomed in 1971, going 17-12 with a 2.54 ERA, and proceeded to become a consistent winner for the Dodgers during the 1970's. Here are Sutton's statistics for the decade period 1971 to 1980 and Guidry's for the period 1977 to 1985 (including the strike shortened, 108 game 1981 season).

Sutton left the Dodgers after 1980 and began a peripatetic stretch of nine years, moving from Houston to Milwaukee to Oakland and then the Angels, before returning to L.A. for a valedictory season in 1988. Over these nine years Sutton won 94 and lost 81 (a .537 winning percentage) and had a 3.71 ERA (which translates to a 102 ERA+, about two percent better than the league average).

Did You Know That Ron Guidry...

...is the only pitcher in modern baseball history (i.e., post-1920) to lead the major leagues in wins over a ten-year span and lead his own league in ERA and be rejected by the Hall of Fame?

Yes, it's true. In fact, you can lead one of the major leagues in wins, ERA and strikeouts over a ten-year span and get about the same number of votes for the Hall of Fame as the great Bobo Newsom. Ron Guidry is proof of that astounding fact.

Ron Guidry won 163 games from 1977 to 1986, had a 3.23 ERA and 1623 strikeouts.

Here are the major league leaders from 1977 to 1986 in wins, ERA and strikeouts:

Wins
Ron Guidry 163
Steve Carlton 155
Phil Niekro 149
Joe Niekro 145
Jack Morris 144

ERA (min. 1600 innings)
Steve Rogers 3.10
Steve Carlton 3.13
John Candelaria 3.14
Nolan Ryan 3.19
Ron Guidry 3.23

Strikeouts
Nolan Ryan 2192
Steve Carlton 1929
Ron Guidry 1623
Phil Niekro 1594
Bert Blyleven 1544

The astute reader will note that all four pitchers ahead of Guidry in the ERA list were N.L. pitchers (actually, Candelaria and Ryan both pitched in the A.L. as well, but spent the bulk of the ten-year period in the N.L.). National League ERAs naturally tend to be lower (because of the absence of the designated hitter), and therefore Guidry's achievement is all the more impressive (in fact, his ERA+ was lower than the N.L. ERA+s of any of the four pitchers ahead of him on the above ERA list).

Who have been the other pitchers to lead the major leagues in wins and their own league in ERA? I'm glad you asked. There have been ten. Here's the list: Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Hal Newhouser, Warren Spahn, Juan Marichal, Tom Seaver, Jim Palmer, Steve Carlton, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux. The first eight are already Hall of Famers; the last two, Clemens and Maddux, will join them the moment the votes are tabulated in their first year of eligibility (unless Clemens gets the McGwire treatment).

Strangely, the eleventh man to accomplish this feat not only failed to make the Hall of Fame, he never even came close. Which raises the question: what did Ron Guidry ever do to offend those who cast their ballots for the Hall of Fame?