Big Games, Big Pitchers

Here are the September pennant race records of many of the biggest "big game" pitchers of the last half century.

There is much that is confirmed and much revealed in the table above. As many would expect, pitchers like Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver elevated their game when the race was hot and time was short. Koufax and Drysdale also pitched marvelously during pennant races (in Koufax's case, more than the numbers above indicate), which is why the Dodgers won those mad N.L. scrambles in '63, '65 and '66.

I imagine many would be surprised at the disparity between Schilling's October numbers and his September numbers. Jack Morris and John Smoltz are two others whose September records don't quite match their October achievements and reputations.

What follows is a brief examination of the Septembers, good and bad, of these pitchers. Click on the pitcher's name to go to a season-by-season breakdown of their performances in pennant races.

Did You Know That Ron Guidry...

...is the only pitcher with four selections to The Sporting New All-Star Team who has been rejected by the Hall of Fame? It's true. Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Bob Feller, Steve Carlton, Warren Spahn, Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Juan Marichal, Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford and Robin Roberts are all in the Hall of Fame. Roger Clemens, Gred Maddux, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez are sure to follow.

Bunning was a two-time Sporting News selection. Drysdale, Morris and Sutton were each selected once. Blyleven was never a Sporting News All-Star. Guidry's four selections - in '78, '81, '83 and '85 - were as many as Koufax, Marichal and Seaver.

Ten Innings To Cooperstown: The Jack Morris Story

Jack Morris sealed his reputation as big game pitcher on October 19, 1991. He pitched a 10 inning shutout that day, winning game 7 of the World Series by a score of 1-0 to make the Minnesota Twins the champions of baseball. It is without question one of the great pitching performances in World Series history. Jack Morris was a gamer, there's no doubt about it.

Jack's Game 7 classic wasn't his only shining moment in October either. He had a 7-4 post-season record in 13 starts, with a 3.80 ERA (even more impressive, he won 7 of his first 8 decisions before a rocky post-season in '92) . As is the case with many great post-season pitchers, he was even better in the World Series, going 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in seven starts for Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto. He was 4-0 with a 1.54 ERA in his first two World Series (in '84 and '91), before going 0-2 for the Blue Jays in the '92 WS. Guidry was better in October, but Morris was close, particularly if you give him extra-credit for his 10-inning Game 7 shutout (and I think we should).

Morris went 13-13 in 30 September starts in those four races with a 3.34 ERA. He had a particulary difficult time in games against the other contenders in those races, losing twice in the last nine games to eventual division winner Milwaukee in 1981 and losing critical September starts to Baltimore in '83 and Toronto in '87. He was stellar in '92 with Toronto, going 4-1 in 7 September starts with a 3.40 ERA. Morris made two September starts for Toronto in 1993, losing his only decision.

In Some Septembers, He Wasn't Worth A Schilling

Curt Schilling's announcement of his retirement last month triggered the usual speculation about his qualifications for the Hall of Fame. The overwhelming consensus among both sportswriter and fans was that Curt was the best big game pitcher of his time, which compensated for his spotty regular season career record, and that he should be inducted into the Hall. I'll go on record and predict that Schilling will indeed cruise into the Hall, almost certainly in his first year of eligibility.

Let me get a few things out of the way first. Schilling's post-season record is great, without question. The line says it all: 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 133.1 innings across 19 starts. He was great in the 2001 World Series (although he was outdueled in his epic confrontation with Clemens in game 7), and was excellent in his two starts for Boston in the 2004 and 2007 World Series. I'm obviously a big advocate of giving significant weight to the "big game" records of Hall of Fame candidates, and Schilling's post-season record is a major plus for his candidacy. And he might have had even more post-season success had he not almost single-handedly ruined Arizona's pennant hopes in 2000.

What Have HOF Voters Been Smoking?

To the right is Ron Guidry's record of vote support in the Hall of Fame balloting, straight from the official website of the HOF. He was dropped from the ballot in 2002 after dipping below 5% support. Take a good look, and then consider the following:

Lew Burdette received 24.1 of the vote in 1984 and topped 20% in five other years. He became a starting pitcher for the Milwaukee Braves in 1954 and over the next 8 years went 142-90 (.612 win%) with a 104 ERA+. After that he bounced around for six years and was largely a punching bag - an 81 ERA+ (meaning that after adjusting for park factors his ERA was nearly 20% higher than the league average). He had a great Series in 1957, beating the Yankees three times. The Yankees took their revenge the next year, beating Burdette twice, including in game 7. There is no rational explanation for Burdette receiving nearly three times the HOF support Guidry did.

Guidry's Extraordinary "Big Game" Record

At left: Guidry pitching in the one-game playoff at Fenway Park in October 1978

Guidry did a season's worth of pitching in his five September pennant races in his prime - 245.2 innings. He won 26 and lost 4 in 30 starts. He struck out 181 and walked 60. His ERA was 2.67. All but 6 of these 30 starts came with the Yankees leading or trailing by 5.5 games or less. All but one of these 30 starts came before the Yankees had clinched or been eliminated (Guidry's last start of 1983 came after elimination). Every start but one during the '77 and '78 pennant races - when Guidry was as at his most dominant - came when the difference was 3.5 games or less. He pitched five shutouts and had two other 7 inning starts in which he didn't surrender a run.

And as if all that weren't enough, Guidry pitched six September games against the other contenders in these five pennant races and his line reads 6-0, 50.1 innings, 1.97 ERA.

The Best Big Game Pitcher Of His Generation

I know, it's a bold statement. If you're a big-league pitcher, there is not a more coveted title or reputation. It is the central argument for Curt Schilling's case for the Hall of Fame. It is no small part of Jack Morris's case for the Hall. It is a perfectly appropriate factor to consider in measuring the qualifications of a pitcher for the Hall.

I fear however that the sportswriters who vote for the Hall of Fame have overlooked Guidry's record as a big game pitcher, and have forgotten that big games take place not only in October but in September as well, when pennants and division championships are won and lost. And it turns out that success in October is not always joined with success in the heat of pennant races. There are pitchers with great post-season accomplishments who stumbled in the heat of pennant races, and others who consistently elevated their performance in pennant races but stumbled in October. And then there are pitchers like Ron Guidry, who were great in both months and seemed to rise to the occasion whenever the stakes were highest.

Ron Guidry participated in five pennant races with the Yankees between 1977 and 1985 where a spot in the post-season hung in the balance (there was nothing at stake for the Yankees in September in the strike interrupted '81 season because they already had a playoff spot locked up by virtue of leading the division when the strike occurred in mid-June)*. I've defined a "pennant race" as any season in which (i) a team was within five games of first place (or a wild-card spot) at some point in September prior to mathematical elimination, and/or (ii) were leading the division (or wild card race) at some point in September but with a lead of five games or less, and (iii) the pitcher at issue made at least one start when the race was within 5 games.

As any baseball fan can tell you, these September games are big when your team is in the race and time is running short. Sometimes they can even feel as big or bigger than post-season games. Guidry's record during these five pennant races was quite simply astounding. Only one other pitcher during the post-WW II era can arguably claim equivalence. This consistent and amazing success in tight pennant races is perhaps the most compelling argument for Guidry's inclusion in the Hall, relatively brief career notwithstanding. Let's look at the record.

Ron Guidry made 30 starts in September during these pennant races. He won 26 of them.

Compare Gator to Drysdale and Bunning

Don Drysdale and Jim Bunning each had a significantly shorter career than Don Sutton and therefore offer a better basis for comparison to Guidry. Neither ranks particularly high in terms of career numbers by Hall of Fame standards: Bunning won 224 games, Drysdale 209. Each led the league in victories once, strikeouts three times and innings pitched twice. Neither ever led their league in ERA, winning percentage or complete games. Drysdale won 20 games twice, Bunning once - neither total particularly impressive in an era in which Spahn, Marichal, Jenkins, Koufax and others routinely posted 20-win seasons.

Although neither pitcher was considered the equal of Ford or Koufax, each was durable, reliable and sometimes spectacular. Bunning pitched the first perfect game in the National League in the 20th century (Koufax would pitch the 2nd the following year). Drysdale tossed a record six consecutive shutouts in 1968, breaking Walter Johnson's record for consecutive scoreless innings in the process. Drysdale and Bunning didn't flaunt the annual win totals or sub-2.00 ERA's of some of their contemporaries, but while Spahn was finally stepping aside and Gibson, Marichal, and Seaver just beginning to hit their stride, Drysdale and Bunning finished 1-2 in wins in the major leagues from 1957 to 1966 by averaging approximately 17 wins a season.

The Sportswriters Loved Him At The Time

As much as the sportswriters have forgotten Ron Guidry when it comes to their Hall of Fame ballots, they seemed to love him when he was active. They couldn't stop lavishing awards and praise on Ron, to an extent reserved almost exclusively for Hall of Famers.

The following is a table of career Cy Young vote shares, which are simply the sum of the percentages of the Cy Young votes received by a player each year. For instance, if a pitcher receives 20% of the Cy Young votes one year and 12% the next, his Cy Young vote share for the two years is 0.32. If he wins the Cy Young Award unanimously the third year, his career Cy Young vote shares jumps to 1.32.

Cy Young Award Voting

Selections to The Sporting News All-Star Team

Seven: Steve Carlton

Five: Roger Clemens, Warren Spahn, Greg Maddux and Jim Palmer

Four: Tom Seaver, Juan Marichal, Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, Pedro Martinez, Robin Roberts, Ron Guidry

Three: Ferguson Jenkins, Jimmy Key, Bob Lemon

Bob Gibson had two TSN selections, as did Gaylord Perry, Jim Kaat, Curt Schilling and Jim Bunning. Drysdale, Sutton, John and Morris each had one. Blyleven, Lolich and Niekro had none.

And yet, when Guidry received 8.8% of the HOF vote in 2000 - his highest vote total - there were five starting pitchers who received more votes: John, Kaat, Morris, Blyleven and Tiant. Their aggregate haul of TSN All-Star selections was four - the same number as Guidry racked up on his own.

The Best Win% for a 150 Win Stretch

Lefty Grove .788 152 wins 1928-33

Randy Johnson .757 156 wins 1994-02

Pedro Martinez .722 161 wins 1997-07

Whitey Ford .720 216 wins 1950-64

Juan Marichal .703 154 wins 1963-69

Roger Clemens .700 156 wins 1997-06

Greg Maddux .699 165 wins 1992-00

Ron Guidry .697 154 wins 1977-85

Tom Glavine .681 171 wins 1992-01

Red Ruffing .673 173 wins 1934-46

Sandy Koufax .670 156 wins 1958-66

Lefty Gomez .665 151 wins 1931-38

Carl Hubbell .662 157 wins 1932-39

Andy Pettitte .661 160 wins 1996-05

Jim Palmer .661 154 wins 1967-76

Tom Seaver .660 171 wins 1969-77

Bob Gibson .658 156 wins 1963-70

Dwight Gooden .655 154 wins 1984-93

Hal Newhouser .654 151 wins 1944-50

Steve Carlton .652 165 wins 1976-84

Mike Mussina .650 195 wins 1992-03

I chose a period covering 150 wins for a few reasons. First, it's the unofficial minimum number of wins for a starting pitcher who hopes to make the Hall (Dizzy Dean has the fewest wins of any Hall of Famer starter with precisely 150). Secondly, it's a number of wins that generally represents a period of seven to nine seasons for most elite pitchers, a duration the Hall of Fame has generally deemed sufficient if excellence can be maintained for that period.

As one can see, this list is chock full of Hall of Famers and sure-to-be Hall of Famers like Maddux, Clemens and Martinez. The only pitchers on this list who have been rejected by the Hall are Guidry and Gooden.