Pedro in '99, Grove in '31, Gibson in '68, Guidry in '78...

...McLain in '68, Koufax in '65 (or '66, or '63), Gooden in '84. These are some of the greatest seasons pitchers have ever had. Let's examine various measures of pitching dominance and compare Guidry's '78 season to many of the other greatest seasons in baseball history. A statistical analysis confirms that Guidry's '78 season is among the greatest ever. When one considers that this performance occurred during one of the most legendary pennant races in baseball history and fueled the greatest comeback in American League history, it is not unreasonable to suggest that Guidry's magnificent season is the greatest ever.

Jim Kaplan Nailed It 23 Years Ago

"Three kinds of players dominate the Baseball Hall of Fame: batters who hit a lot, sluggers who homer a lot, pitchers who win a lot. Their glitzy stats jump out of the bios sent to electors. But there are equally deserving players who don't make the Hall: men whose numbers aren't catchy enough and whose contributions are often too subtle to be summarized. Some of them are subsequently elected by the Veterans' Committee, but that group's deliberations don't begin until 23 years after a player has retired.

"One way to try to right these wrongs is to build up support for worthy but underrated players before they get lost in the shuffle. I have in mind three current players who merit election to the Hall but possibly will not make it based on past voting patterns: Tony Perez, Ron Guidry and Ozzie Smith."

Jim Kaplan, in the June 2, 1986 edition of Sports Illustrated

SI's Jim Kaplan was prophetic - or at least 67% prophetic. Tony Perez and Ozzie Smith have indeed been inducted into the cherished Hall. Ron Guidry, however...

Guidry Gets An Endorsement From Jim Rice

You know my opinion about Ron Guidry's HOF bona fides. How about getting Jim Rice's view?

Rice was asked about Blyleven and Morris on a conference call with the press shortly after his election to the Hall. Here's a link to the transcript of the conference call. The question about Blyleven and Morris comes up towards the end.

Rice made the point that it's about more than numbers. For a player, it was about what great competitors these guys were. Rice plainly thinks Blyleven and Morris are HOF quality candidates. What was really interesting, however, is that he goes out of his way to mention two other pitchers he felt epitomized great competitors:

"So when you look at pitchers like [Blyleven and Morris], like a Ron Guidry, you look at a Goose Gossage, that you go out there and you face everyday, and you knew they were going to be the best."

I think Jim Rice knows a thing or two about Hall of Fame pitchers. Thanks, Jim, from the Gator Guy and all the Ron Guidry fans.

Cooperstown Chronicles

I've posted a link to Cooperstown Chronicles at LestersLegends.com. Ryan Lester is the proprietor of LestersLegends and he offers his views of the HOF qualifications of various Hall of Famers and HOF prospects. While I don't always agree with Ryan, I find his insights interesting and illuminating. Here's his take on Ron Guidry's candidacy for the HOF:

"I would have liked to see Ron Guidry get more than the 170 victories he totaled. If he got 30 more at the same winning percentage (.651), I think he would have been a no-brainer. He had a nine-year stretch when he was one of the very best pitchers in the game. His 25-3, 1.74 ERA in 1978 is legendary. His 3-1, 1.69 ERA in World Series play shows he could elevate his game. I’m a Red Sox fan, but I appreciate how good Ron Guidry was. I think he should be a HOFer. If he’s good enough for to have his number retired by the Yankees and a spot in Monument Park, then he’s good enough for Cooperstown."

I think Ryan touches on the key issues: Guidry's winning percentage, nine-year stretch of excellence and superior post-season record merit induction.

How Dominant Was Guidry At His Peak?

Pretty damn dominant. There are various measures of pitching dominance, but in the final analysis it's about not surrendering runs. Guidry was the best in the business at Job One for pitchers in the years '77, '78 and '79, leading the American League in ERA twice and compiling a major league leading 161 ERA+ over those three years.

It turns out that Guidry's 161 ERA+ over a three year period is a pretty unusual achievement, so unusual that Guidry was only the third American League pitcher in the modern era (i.e., post-1920) to accomplish the feat. If you exclude the War Years (when Hal Newhouser did it) then Guidry was the first American League pitcher to turn the trick since Lefty Grove in the '30s.

We'll look at the select group of pitchers who've managed to maintain this level of dominance over a three-year span and examine the curious concentration of these achievements in two brief and distinct periods in baseball history.

More "Did You Know..."

There have been 19 pitchers who led all starting pitchers in their league in MVP balloting in consecutive seasons. Fourteen have been eligible for the Hall of Fame. Ten have been inducted into the Hall. (Five of those ten are pictured above; from left to right: Dizzy Dean, Hal Newhouser, Red Ruffing, Bob Feller and Dazzy Vance.)

The only pitchers to have been rejected so far are Bucky Walters, Mort Cooper (who did it during the War years), Denny McLain (whose personal life imploded the year after pulling off the feat 1969) and Ron Guidry. Guidry led all AL starting pitchers in MVP balloting in '77 and '78.

Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Chris Carpenter each led all starting pitchers in their league in the MVP balloting but have yet to be eligible for the Hall. All but Carpenter are certain to make it (unless Roger is rail'roided). The ten Hall of Famers who've achieved this are Dazzy Vance, Burleigh Grimes, Carl Hubbell, Dizzy Dean, Red Ruffing, Bob Feller, Hal Newhouser, Warren Spahn, Sandy Koufax and Jim Palmer.

Did You Know That Ron Guidry...

...is the only American League pitcher to win consecutive ERA titles and be rejected by the Hall of Fame? Did you know that he is the only pitcher since WW II - A.L. or N.L. - to win consecutive ERA titles and be rejected by the Hall?

Walter Johnson, Red Faber, Lefty Grove, Hal Newhouser and Ron Guidry are the only HOF-eligible American League pitchers to have won back-to-back ERA titles. All are in the Hall except Guidry. Roger Clemens and Pedro Martinez are the only other A.L. pitchers to win consecutive ERA titles, and they'll enter the Hall in their first year of eligibility (again, assuming Clemens doesn't run aground on the steroids issue).

Christy Mathewson, Pete Alexander, Ray Kremer, Carl Hubbell, Bucky Walters, Sandy Koufax, Tom Seaver, Gred Maddux and Randy Johnson are the only N.L. pitchers to win consecutive ERA titles, and all but Kremer and Walters are either in the Hall or are surefire bets to be first-ballot inductees.

This isn't to say that winning consecutive ERA titles should qualify one for automatic induction into the Hall. It's just to point out that it's rarely done, only very good pitchers do it, and those who do it almost invariably go into the Hall of Fame.

Just something for the Veterans Committee to consider.

Guidry's Best Seasons v. The Best of Two All-Time Greats

My last post compared Guidry and Drysdale and argued that they had very similar Hall of Fame qualifications - relatively brief careers but sustained excellence and exceptional records as big game pitchers. As I've noted, however, there are many who consider Drysdale's HOF qualifications marginal, a view apparently shared by many in the BBWAA, who waited ten years and ten ballots before inducting the Dodger great.

I'm very conscious of the fact that comparing HOF candidates to the most marginal inductees can lead to a gradual loosening of HOF standards. If a sufficient argument for induction is that a candidate is 95% as great as the most marginal Hall of Famers, then HOF standards will gradually be eroded. That's not to say that Guidry is any less deserving of the Hall than Drysdale, because in my opinion he is every bit as deserving and his induction would in no way represent a loosening of HOF standards. If there's any doubt about that, just compare Guidry to two Hall of Famers whom no one would suggest were marginal inductees.

Guidry v. Drysdale: A Year-By-Year Comparison

Here's a year-by-year comparison of Guidry and Drysdale. The seasons are listed on the basis of wins, in descending order.

I've inserted a "G" for Guidry or "D" for Drysdale in the middle column to indicate which pitcher had, in my estimation, the superior season (and, in one instance, an "E" for even).